Presentation Schedule
Systematic Review on Prognostic Factors in Mid-life Adults for Predicting Frailty Onset (107950)
Session Chair: Dewaram Abhiman Nagdeve
Saturday, 11 July 2026 10:45
Session: Session 2
Room: UCL Torrington, B17 (Basement Floor)
Presentation Type:Oral Presentation
Background
Frailty is associated with an increased risk of adverse health outcomes. A better understanding of prognostic factors for frailty is important for taking comprehensive approaches to mitigate their combined effect on health in later life. This systematic review aimed to identify, describe, and critically appraise the evidence for prognostic factors in mid-life (40-64 years old) for predicting frailty onset.
Methods
Seven databases were searched from inception to January 2025. Longitudinal studies with data on mid-life adults without frailty, that assessed prognostic factors for incident frailty with ≥5 years of follow-up, were eligible. Risk of bias (RoB) was assessed using the QUIPS tool, and certainty of evidence using GRADE tool.
Results
Of 9,141 references screened, 35 studies involving 2.3 million participants were included. Mean ages ranged from 42 to 64 years. The frailty index was the most frequently used definition (52.8%). Twenty-eight studies were rated at high RoB in at least one QUIPS domain, and only one study was rated at low RoB across all domains.
Fifty-two potential prognostic factors were identified and categorised into six groups: demographic, life-style, general health, social networks or support, psychological, and work-related or environmental factors. Four modifiable prognostic factors, including smoking, depression, moderate/severe body pain, and perceived unmet healthcare needs, showed consistent moderate to high certainty evidence of association with frailty onset.
Conclusion
This review synthesises evidence on prognostic factors in mid-life associated with frailty onset. Early identification of modifiable prognostic factors can guide preventive programmes to improve health and independence later in life.
Authors:
Maria T Sanchez-Santos, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
James H Bezer, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
Roshi Shrestha, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
Gary S Collins, University of Birmingham, United Kingdom
Louise Lafortune, McMaster University, Canada
About the Presenter(s)
I am an NIHR Doctoral Research Fellow and DPhil candidate at the University of Oxford, United Kingdom
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